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Are Home Prices Really Falling? Here's What the Data Actually Says

Are Home Prices Really Falling? Here's What the Data Actually Says

If you've been seeing headlines about home prices falling, you may be wondering what that means for home values in Richmond, Virginia. It's a fair concern—but the reality is far less alarming than the headlines suggest.

Home prices are not crashing in Richmond, VA. And nationally, prices are still trending upward.

According to year-over-year data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), most states are experiencing home price increases—not declines. The growth we're seeing today isn't as dramatic as it was during the pandemic housing boom, and that's actually a good thing. A more balanced pace of appreciation is healthier for the market long-term. Nationally, home prices are still up about 2.1% compared to last year.

Yes, there are a small number of states where home prices have declined slightly over the past year. In those markets, price changes typically range from -0.1% to around -2%. These are modest adjustments, not dramatic drops. Most of these areas saw prices rise very quickly during the pandemic. What we're seeing now is a correction—not a collapse. This is market normalization, not a housing crash.

According to data from Zillow, only about 4% of homes are worth less than what their owners originally paid. Roughly 96% of homeowners still have positive equity. Over the past five years, home prices nationally are up nearly 49%. Those long-term gains help cushion the small, short-term changes we're seeing now.

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